15. Anderson, Eric. "The Millerite Use of Prophecy: A Case Study of a 'Striking Fulfillment.'" In The Disappointed: Millerism and Millenarianism in the Nineteenth Century edited by Ronald L. Numbers and Jonathan M. Butler. Bloomington, IN: Indiana Univ. Press, 1987: 78-91.
Some Millerites expected a fall of Turkey and a closing of God's probation for man on August 11, 1840. Through a carefully rationalized reading of events—foreign intervention in a dispute between Turkey and Egypt—they were able to announce that the prophesy had been fulfilled and was indeed a main proof of their beliefs. This enabled the movement to sustain itself through later failures of prophecy. The prophet (Josiah Litch) who had foretold the event later recanted entirely without even mentioning his earlier forecast, which had been made, in its precise version, only a few days previous to the event and was severely hedged.
After the evident failure of Turkey to fall or even to go to war, Litch began recasting his prophecy, so that the intervention of Christian nations could be seen to symbolize Turkey's fall. His prophecies were widely ignored, and, as critics pointed out, Turkey had in fact not fallen; in fact, the Western nations' intervention prevented just that event.
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